Yesterday, for the sixth time in the last twelve years a talented runner at the Berlin Marathon set another world record, with Kenyan Dennis Kimetto doing so by an astounding 26 seconds! Finishing in 2 hours 2 minutes 57 seconds this translates to an average pace of 4 minutes 41.5 seconds per mile, a great pace for one mile, and an unfathomable one to nearly all runners for 26.2!
Since Khalid Khannouchi set the marathon record in London in April 2002, the record has been broken half a dozen times, on average, once every two years. Interestingly, each of the six world records happened on the flat and fast Berlin course, on average by a 27 second margin.
On the assumption that the next dozen years follows the pattern of the prior dozen, the sub-two hour marathon will be broken within that time. Personally, I believe this super achievement will occur far sooner. First, Kimetto already demonstrated that he possesses the needed leg speed, had he run the full marathon at the pace that he ran between 30 and 35 km. Second, and most important, the mega-motivation of a fantastic financial and fame reward will entice many other talented marathoners to the requisite level of physical and mental conditioning.